May 2nd marks an important date for linebacker Devin White and his future with the Bucs. That is the deadline for NFL teams to decide whether or not to pick up the fifth-year option on first-round picks from the 2019 NFL Draft.

For players that have proven worthy of their draft placement, these options represent great value for their teams. Most of the options that would be exercised represent the average salary of the third to the 20th or 25th-highest paid players at their positions. NFL teams will often exercise these options to keep a very good player around for at least one more year before having to pay that player fair market value. In Tampa Bay, the Bucs must decide if Devin White is worthy of that option. The Pro Bowl linebacker presents a very interesting case study for a variety of reasons.

How The NFL Values Linebackers

Traditionally, the NFL has had five different defensive position groups: defensive tackle, defensive end, linebacker, cornerback and safety. This is important, because when classifying Devin White’s fifth-year option value, he falls into the linebacker designation. That will mean his salary is based off the average of the third to the 20th highest salary at his position over the past five seasons, per OverTheCap.com.

These salaries will include other off-ball linebackers like Bobby Wagner, Darius Leonard and Fred Warner. It will also include edge defenders such as TJ Watt, Leonard Williams and Shaq Barrett. And therein lies the first complication with whether White’s fifth-year option is really a value for Tampa Bay. Here are the top 12 salaries of off-ball linebackers based on average annual salary.

Now consider that White’s option is estimated at $11.374M. Unfortunately, the NFL uses an out-of-date valuation system to calculate fifth-year options. Because of this, the number the Bucs must consider for White gets skewed upward. So Tampa Bay has to decide if Devin White is a top-10ish linebacker.

Devin White: Talent vs Production

Ask anyone in football whether Devin White can become a top-10 linebacker, and I bet you’ll get an unanimous, ‘yes’. He has the speed, fluidity and power to ascend to the top of the NFL. And he has shown flashes throughout his first three years of being that guy. But he has not, to this point, put all of it together consistently. And he has not shown the lynchpin skill an off-ball linebacker needs to truly be considered one of the best. That skill? Coverage. Per PFF, Devin White has registered coverage grades of 57.4, 39.8 and 43.5 over each of his first three seasons in the NFL.

Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Is PFF not your cup of tea? Pewter Report’s Jon Ledyard has also detailed White’s shortcomings over the past two seasons. Ledyard has also pointed out multiple examples during in-game live streams, exhibiting White’s inability to play his man or zone in coverage. Even head coach Bruce Arians has pointed it out before.

Why is this relevant? Going back to our list of the top-paid linebackers you will notice a very consistent theme. Each of the top 10 guys received their big contract after establishing themselves in coverage for at least one full season. Devin White has not shown that ability yet.

White has shown other abilities through his first three years. For the most part, he has been very good as a part of a top-tier run-stopping unit. He uses his speed and instincts to pursue ball carriers sideline-to-sideline. In addition, White has shown a knack for getting to quarterbacks. His 2020 season gave him national acclaim largely due to his nine-sack season. However, that production hasn’t proven sustainable, as White followed that up with just 3.5 sacks in 2021.

Should Bucs Exercise The Option?

This brings us to the question the Bucs will need to answer. Devin White has shown flashes of being the player the Bucs thought they were getting when they drafted him fifth overall in the 2019 draft. Traditionally, that fits the mold of players who get their option picked up. It gives the team one more year to see if the player can fully blossom.

Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: USA Today

However, when factoring in the complications of the high price of the option relative to White’s position group, I just don’t see it being a value. If the Bucs do pick up the option, the best-case scenario is White performs up to the value. But there is very little upside above that cap number. It also prevents the Bucs from creating cap space by pushing money into future years if they do really want White beyond 2022.

What is the downside to not picking up the option? White performs consistently at a high level in 2022 while making tremendous strides in coverage. He then enters the 2023 offseason looking for a contract north of $17M per season. That long-term deal would allow the Bucs to structure it in a way where his 2023 cap number is in-line with or less than the fifth-year option. That’s a bet I think the Bucs should make.