What a difference a month makes, right? The Bucs were 4-7 at the end of November and now as they get set to close December, they’re 8-7 with a chance to clinch the NFC South on New Year’s Eve. A win over the 7-8 Saints at Raymond James Stadium would do the trick, earning Tampa Bay its third straight NFC South title and fourth consecutive playoff appearance.

The Bucs have had quite the December, winning four straight and setting up a simple path to the NFC’s No. 4 seed and the home playoff game that comes with it. A win over the Saints in Week 17 would get it over with and set up a chance for them to finish with 10 wins and close the season on a six-game winning streak if they beat the 2-13 Panthers in Week 18.

However, Tampa Bay just needs one win in its final two games — whether it’s over New Orleans or Carolina — to win the division. Todd Bowles and his team surely want to get the job done this Sunday and close out 2023 the right way — with a 5-0 record in December.

The Last Time…

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

The first installment of the season series between the Bucs and Saints came back in Week 4, when Tampa Bay went into the Superdome and dominated on its way to a 26-9 win. Baker Mayfield threw for three touchdowns, with Cade Otton, Trey Palmer and Deven Thompkins each catching one. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense forced three turnovers — fumbles forced by Antoine Winfield Jr. and Vita Vea and a late interception by Dee Delaney off of Jameis Winston.

That win over the Saints on Oct. 1 was the Bucs’ third straight in the series and it got Todd Bowles to 3-0 against New Orleans as Tampa Bay’s head coach. It also sent the team into its bye week atop the NFC South at 3-1, but it was the Bucs’ last win until Nov. 12. They lost six of seven after that game but have since recovered to win four straight to start December.

New Orleans leads the all-time series, 39-24, though Tampa Bay is 4-2 in the last six meetings (including the playoffs). The Bucs are looking to sweep the Saints in back-to-back seasons for the first time ever.

How The Bucs And Saints Are Trending

The Bucs are trending in the right direction at the right time, having won four straight games to climb to the top of the NFC South. They began December with a win over the Panthers, then won road games against the Falcons and Packers before coming back home to beat the Jaguars last week. Dave Canales’ offense is really coming together, which has taken some of the pressure off Todd Bowles’ defense and allowed the head coach to deploy his side of the ball a bit more aggressively.

Tampa Bay once looked destined for a Top 10 pick, but now it finds itself just one win away from another division title. Not only that, but a win over New Orleans would be five straight victories and the team would have a good shot at making it six in a row with a regular season finale at Carolina next weekend. The longest regular season-only winning streak in franchise history is six games, and that was back in 1999.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs are set to close out their regular season home slate on Sunday against the Saints. They were once 1-3 at Raymond James Stadium this season, dealing with something of a homefield disadvantage. But since a Week 7 loss to the Falcons at home, they’ve won three in a row in front of the Tampa Bay faithful. With a 20-6 win over the Titans, a 21-18 victory over the Panthers and last Sunday’s 30-12 win over the Jaguars, the Bucs are 4-3 at home and have a chance to clinch a winning home record with a win over the Saints on New Year’s Eve.

The Saints have been trending in the opposite direction. They’ve lost four of six, going from 5-4 to 7-8. After a three-game losing streak dropped them from 5-4 to 5-7, they looked to recover nicely with wins over the Panthers and Giants. But the reason Sunday is a clinching opportunity for the Bucs is partly due to the Saints’ failure to maintain their turnaround last week against the Rams. In that game on Thursday Night Football, New Orleans fell behind 30-7 and couldn’t quite recover, losing 30-22.

Dennis Allen’s team isn’t out of the playoff race by any means, but it hasn’t been the best stretch for his defense. The unit did only allow six points in those back-to-back wins over the Panthers and Giants, but in the other games surrounding those, it’s been bad. Really bad. Going back to Week 10, the Saints allowed 27 points to Josh Dobbs and the Vikings. They then gave up 24 points in a loss to the Desmond Ridder-led Falcons. Then came a game that saw them give up 33 to the Lions. And most recently, it was the 30-point night for the Rams.

It can all turn around quickly for the Saints, though. A win this week keeps the Bucs from clinching, meaning the division would still technically be unsettled. Not only that, but it would keep New Orleans alive in the NFC Wild Card picture. That could be key in the end, as the Bucs would still be favorites to beat the Panthers next week and clinch the division at 9-8, leaving the Wild Card as the only path to the postseason for Allen and Co.

Here’s how the Bucs and Saints stack up heading into Week 17:

Bucs Offense: T-17th in scoring offense (21.7 PPG), 23rd in total offense (316.3 yards per game), 17th in passing offense (227.0 yards per game), 30th in rushing offense (89.3 yards per game)

Saints Offense: T-13th in scoring offense (22.1 PPG), 14th in total offense (334.8 yards per game), 12th in passing offense (236.1 yards per game), T-21st in rushing offense (98.7 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 11th in scoring defense (20.1 points allowed per game), 24th in total defense (356.2 yards allowed per game), 32nd in passing defense (264.1 yards allowed per game), 7th in rushing defense (92.1 yards allowed per game)

Saints Defense: 9th in scoring defense (19.8 points allowed per game), 14th in total defense (321.6 yards allowed per game), 7th in passing defense (194.7 yards allowed per game), 25th in rushing defense (126.9 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Bucs were 2.5-point favorites, with the Over/Under set at 42.5.

What Might Decide This Bucs-Saints Matchup?

Saints QB Derek Carr – Photo by: USA Today

This game will be dictated by the play of the Buccaneer defense, as well as that of Saints quarterback Derek Carr. Tampa Bay kept Carr in check the last time these two teams met, with the veteran quarterback completing 23 of his 37 passes for just 127 yards (3.4 avg.) and no touchdowns while also losing a fumble. He was banged up on that day and became over-reliant on Alvin Kamara, who had 13 catches on 14 targets.

The problem with that, though, was that Todd Bowles‘ defense was ready for that. Kamara’s 13 catches only went for 33 yards (2.5 avg.).

Carr has been banged up a lot this season, but he’s refused to miss much time. He’s played through a lot and lately, he’s been putting up good numbers. He has thrown for three touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, and he’s had success against the Bucs in his career back when he was with the Raiders.

This is a Tampa Bay defense that is dead last against the pass this year, too, so there could be an opportunity for Carr and the Saints offense on Sunday. The key will be whether New Orleans can get production at wide receiver outside of Chris Olave. Michael Thomas isn’t back yet, Rashid Shaheed has been inconsistent and no one else has really stepped up.

Tampa Bay may be without Carlton Davis III (concussion protocol) this week, leaving Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum as the outside corners. Those two need to be locked in and the Bucs’ pass rush — namely Yaya Diaby, Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey — needs to get after the quarterback. Otherwise, this could turn into a offense-friendly game. Getting off to a good start on both sides of the ball, of course, would help the Bucs in a big way.

Bucs Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The good news for Tampa Bay, though, is that the defense doesn’t have to carry all of the weight anymore. These days, Dave Canales‘ offense has been holding up its end of things, having scored 29, 34 and 30 points in the last three games, respectively. Baker Mayfield has been on fire, totaling 1,010 yards and nine touchdowns to one interception during the Bucs’ four-game winning streak.

And last time out against the Saints, Mayfield completed 78.1% of his passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns to just one interception. Remember, that was a game that saw Mike Evans leave early, too.

The balance of the Bucs’ offense is another key to this one, as getting Rachaad White back on track would be a huge plus on Sunday. He was less impactful in the win over Jacksonville in Week 16, rushing for just 39 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries (2.0 avg.). Not only that, but he caught six passes for only 38 yards. It was a far cry from what he did in the wins over Carolina, Atlanta and Green Bay.

In the Week 4 meeting with New Orleans, the Tampa Bay run game — and the short passing game with White — wasn’t what it has been in December. Getting No. 1 going against the 25th-ranked run defense is a must for the Bucs in this one.

Getting another wall-like performance from the offensive line would help the Bucs complete the season series sweep, too. Back in Week 4, Tristan Wirfs and Co. dominated, allowing just one sack and three quarterback hits as a unit. All five starters (which includes Matt Feiler, not Aaron Stinnie) graded out above 67.0 in pass protection (per PFF), so another performance like that — coupled with improved work in the run game — can give the Bucs a big edge in this one.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Mike Evans now has 1,163 yards and 13 touchdowns on 73 catches (15.9 avg.) this season, and he’s currently on pace to finish with the second-most receiving yards he’s ever had in a single season. Not only that, but his 13 receiving touchdowns are half of Baker Mayfield‘s 26 passing scores and he’s two away from breaking his own single-season franchise record (14 in 2021).

His longtime nemesis, Marshon Lattimore, doesn’t appear likely to play this week, but look for Evans to light it up again — much like he did when he went for 207 yards and three touchdowns as the Bucs clinched the 2022 NFC South crown. It would be a  fitting way to bookend the calendar year.

Antoine Winfield Jr. legitimately has a claim to be in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. He makes one or two plays that effect the game every single week, and last week, he made three such plays. He had a sack, a fumble recovery and an interception in the Bucs’ win over the Jaguars and now has 110 tackles (68 solo), five sacks, five forced fumbles, four fumble recoveries, three interceptions and 12 passes defensed this year. The fourth-year safety has just been incredible, and he’ll be looking for a repeat performance against the Saints after coming up with a sack, forced fumble and fumble recovery against them in Week 4.

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and Saints WR Chris Olave – Photo by: USA Today

Chris Olave has really been the Saints’ only reliable receiver this season. He’s up to 81 catches for 1,041 yards and four touchdowns (12.9 avg.) this season, and he has three 100-yard games in the last four weeks. The former Ohio State star was targeted 13 times in last week’s loss to the Rams, and he caught nine of them for 123 yards. He has struggled in his career against Tampa Bay, but he can strike for a big play at any moment.

If Carlton Davis III is unable to clear concussion protocol, it’ll be up to Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum and the rest of the secondary to hold Olave in check.

Demario Davis can still do it at a high level, much like fellow mid-30s linebacker Lavonte David can. Davis is the Saints’ leading tackler with 108 (67 solo), plus he has 6.5 sacks, nine tackles for loss, four passes defensed and a forced fumble. He has a 90.1 overall grade from PFF, with an impressive 87.1 coverage grade.

Davis’ 82.0 run defense, 81.1 tackling and 75.5 pass rushing marks are excellent as well. He grades out as a top-10 linebacker with every one of those grades except for pass rushing, but even then he’s still top-15.

Bucs vs. Saints Game Information

When: Sunday, December 31
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Kevin Burkhardt (Play by Play), Greg Olsen (Analyst), Erin Andrews & Tom Rinaldi (Reporters)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martin Gramática (Color)