Cover 3 is a weekly feature column written by PewterReport.com’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat writer Trevor Sikkema published every Tuesday. The column, as its name suggests, comes in three phases: a statistical observation, an in-depth film breakdown, and a “this or that” segment where the writer asks the reader to chose between two options.

Sikkema’s Stat(s) of the Week

What is the price of winning in professional football?

Is it the value of the franchise? Is it whatever your salary cap budget is? Is it how much a team chooses to spend on coaches, facilities, team amenities, etc.? You could say all of those things play a part in bringing a world championship to a city, but there’s often another price that has to be paid or at least valued correctly for a team to take the leap from losers to winners.

That price is the No. 1 overall pick.

Records of 2-14, 3-13, heck, even 0-16 are the lyrics to a song that summons a No. 1 overall pick. Teams picking at the top of the NFL Draft are the worst the league had to offer the previous year, and the system is set up to aid them as much as possible. Sometimes the No. 1 overall pick isn’t as ideal as a team may wish it was. Each year’s top pick depends on the draft class that player is coming from. But, nailing that No. 1 pick can go a long way to changing a franchise, no more so than if the player selected is a quarterback.

Jason Licht, Jameis Winston and Lovie Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Following a 2-14 season under the first year of then head coach Lovie Smith, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers found themselves picking in the Top 10 yet again. They were No. 3 overall in 2010 when they selected Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, No. 7 overall in 2012 when they selected safety Mark Barron, and No. 7 overall again in 2014 when the selected wide receiver Mike Evans. But 2015 was just the fifth time in franchise history – first time since 1987 – that the franchise was selecting at the very top.

For a team that hadn’t had much success at the quarterback position since their Super Bowl era and truly hadn’t found itself a franchise quarterback since entering the NFL in 1976, the team opted to go with the former Heisman Trophy-winning signal caller out of Florida State, Jameis Winston, as their top choice.

Since then, Winston has been the talk of the town. He’s what has brought many Buccaneers fans back into a feeling of hope and has been a centerpiece for coaching decisions and free agency signings. There is no debate that Winston has already been better than most Buccaneers quarterback throughout the team’s history, but here we are in Year Three of Winston’s tenure (the appropriate amount of time allowed before you really get into to judging a draft pick) and his team will not be making the postseason for the third straight year under his leadership and tenth year since the franchise has played beyond 16 games since 2007.

When you’re a quarterback and go No. 1 overall, there are plenty of expectations on your shoulders – some expected, other unrealistic. Things are expected to get better, but how quick and how common is success three years in to a No. 1 overall selection at quarterback?

There have been five No. 1 overall quarterbacks who have come into the NFL in the last 10 years before Winston: JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck.

When you read each of those names, certain things immediately come to mind, but much of that is to their success or reputation they’ve had throughout longer careers. What were each of those former No. 1 picks like in their first three seasons, and how does Winston stack up in terms of individual performance and team elevation over that time?

Let’s take a look.

JaMarcus Russell – No. 1 in 2007

Russell’s first three years in the NFL were his only years in the NFL. He was drafted No. 1 by Raiders owner Al Davis to who was then the team’s head coach, Lane Kiffin. Russell held out all of training camp and even Week 1 in his rookie season, and because of that, he didn’t start right away, even when he finally agreed to his contract. In 2008, the team turned to Russell as their starting quarterback, but a divide between Kiffin and Davis, which ultimately led to Kiffin’s firing, caused turmoil among the team and Oakland finished at just 5-11.

In 2009, Russell, who was lazy and already struggling on the field for the previous two years, lost his uncle Ray to heart failure. It was a loss that spiraled Russell downward on and off the field leading to his benching and ultimately the end of his NFL career after the 2009 season.

It’s not fair to judge Winston in any way with the situation with Russell, even if it gives Winston a boost when you stack former No. 1 picks up next to each other. Though you can say that at least Winston hasn’t been a giant bust like Russell, which is true. Russell’s football life is unique in a sad way. For that, there isn’t much to compare from the first of the five players we’re going to look at.

Matthew Stafford – No. 1 in 2009

The Stafford comparison is where things really start to get cooking.

A winless season earned the Lions the right to select Stafford out of Georgia in 2009, and as you’d expect for a team that hadn’t won a game in over a calendar year, they started their prized possession right away.

Stafford started the first 10 games of his rookie season before being placed on IR with a minor knee injury. During that season, he threw for over 2,000 yards with 13 touchdowns, five of which came in one game against New Orleans. But, Stafford’s defense was worst in the NFL, so the rookie couldn’t help the team’s record.

Though he came into his sophomore season fully healthy, Stafford sprained his throwing shoulder in Week 1, an injury which allowed him to play just three games that season. Stafford’s stellar 6:1 touchdown:interception ratio was for naught.

In his third season, his most healthy season to date, Stafford ascended to the franchise quarterback level. He was able to play and start in all 16 of the Lions’ games, he threw for over 5,000 yards and got his team to the playoffs despite a bottom-half defense. Though the rest of the Lions organization around him has been hot and cold since, Stafford proved that season (and even gave hints in the season before) that he could be the guy going forward.

Sam Bradford – No. 1 in 2010

Bradford has plenty of narratives around him, but when you look at the numbers of his first three seasons, they’re not nearly as damning as you might think when recalling them today.

Bradford became and will likely forever be the highest paid rookie draft pick in NFL history since his contract was signed before the CBA changed to cap to limit how much rookies can make. In Bradford’s first career game, Week 1 of 2010, he threw for 253 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. After a rocky start, Bradford went on to throw for over 3,500 yards with 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. His Rams finished with a 7-9 record and did not make the playoffs.

The following year, Bradford continued the trend Stafford set by getting hurt for most of his sophomore season. A high ankle sprain limited what Bradford was able to do in the 10 games he did play, but he finished the season why a terrible 1-9 record as their starter.

In his third season, like Stafford once again, Bradford got a bump. With new head coach Jeff Fisher, Bradford finished his most healthy and productive season yet which saw a career high in touchdowns and yards as well as a career low in interception ratio. Though the Rams and Bradford were building in the right direction, the 49ers and the Seahawks were both more polished and talented teams within the division, both finishing with better records and keeping Bradford out of the playoffs for the third straight season.

Cam Newton – No. 1 in 2011

In terms of hype, Newton and Andrew Luck were probably the two who closest match what people thought of Winston coming into the NFL.

Newton played in and started in 48 of 48 possible games during his first three seasons. In the first 16, Newton threw for over 4,000 yards with 21 passing touchdowns, 14 rushing touchdowns and 17 interceptions. However, despite all that, a 27th-ranked defense from the Panthers held the team to just a 6-10 record.

In Newton’s second season, he regressed in terms of sheer numerical statistics, but increased his value in efficiency. The team’s defense also took a big leap and Newton’s record in his second season increased to 7-9.

In his third year, with a stellar defense behind him, Newton threw for less yards, but his efficiency and growth was evident with the most passing touchdowns of his career paired with the lowest interception ratio of his career. His ascension in his third season, much like Stafford’s, resulted in the playoffs at a 12-4 record. In each year of Newton’s early career, he helped the team by becoming what they needed him to become while maintaining skillset and increasing efficiency.

Andrew Luck – No. 1 in 2012

It seemed like Luck was the “can’t miss” prospect of the century when he was coming out of Stanford in 2012. That was evident when Robert Griffin III, who would have gone No. 1 overall in almost any other draft class, was selected after Luck.

In his first three seasons, Luck absolutely lived up to the hype – in fact, his first NFL pass was a 63-yard touchdown. He, like Newton, started all 48 games during his first three years. In his first year, Luck threw for over 4,000 yards with 22 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He broke the record for most passing yards ever during a rookie season. Despite having the 25th ranked defense, he still led the Colts to an 11-5 season with a playoff birth.

In his second season, Luck’s first-year numbers went down in yards, but his efficiency went up (as you can see is a trend with the successful, playoff No. 1 overall picks). He threw less than 4,000 yards in that campaign, but tied his previous year’s touchdowns total with 23 while throwing half the interceptions. He again led his team to the playoffs, this time to host a Wild Card game.

Luck’s third season was an ascension, like the others, but it was to a whole other level. Luck threw for a career high 4,761 yards with an astounding 40 touchdowns and just 16 interceptions on his way to hosting yet another playoff game. In each year of his first three seasons, Luck went progressively further into the playoffs.

Jameis Winston – No. 1 in 2015

So, which No. 1 overall path do Winston’s numbers relate to most? From a pure numbers standpoint, Newton is his closest comparison with similar yards and ratios, however, Newton’s efficiency took steps Winston’s hasn’t as his early years went on. On the flip side, Winston hasn’t been available quite like Newton or Luck with his shoulder injury this year, but he isn’t as unavailable as Russell or Stafford were. Finally, in terms of playoffs, Winston hasn’t ascended to that next level like the three quarterbacks who are still on the teams that drafted them had in their first three years. The Bucs are currently 4-8.

Though Winston’s 2017 numbers aren’t complete yet, this year’s pace divided and averaged to a full 16 games would have him throwing for less yards and less touchdowns than he ever has, though his interceptions would be lower as well – mainly due to missing three games with a shoulder injury. It also gets tricky when you think that Stafford and Bradford had their injuries in Year Two where Winston’s is in Year Three. Cast and coaching changes come into play, too.

No situation is the same, but I think the main takeaway from Winston compared to his fellow No. 1 picks is that right now he’s somewhere in between Bradford and Stafford. The Rams failed to surround Bradford with talent the way they needed to, and his injuries eventually caught up with him. Stafford has been up and down for the Lions, as they, too, have failed to put a consistent team around him, especially a running game and on defense, but he has at least shown he is capable of taking over in certain years even as the cast changes – that’s ultimately what having a franchise quarterback is all about, being the centerpiece no matter what.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

Winston has yet to get to that Stafford level of franchise quarterback and is therefore also short of Luck and Newton as well in terms of doing what you need to do from the quarterback position to get each varying team you’re on from year-to-year a playoff shot.

Right now Winston, who is just 23 years old, is who he is. I don’t think he’s yet shown he can adapt like Newton and Luck were able to do during their three years or even take that next one step like Stafford has. He’s still short of those three. Coincidentally, those are the three that have made the playoffs, too, and Winston has yet to do that.

Winston’s numbers suggest he is on the cusp of taking that next step, but the Bucs need to figure out how to surround him with the coaches, the running game and the defense that will allow him to do so or they may put themselves in danger of a Bradford situation, which ends in a parting of ways. Winston is young, younger than all the above examples except for Stafford. I’m not saying the Bucs are looking to move on, but that next step needs to come – and come quickly. It happened in Year Three for those other quarterbacks that were No. 1 picks, but it hasn’t for Winston, even without the injury.

Teams can’t wait forever, quarterbacks can’t either.

Turn to the next page as we go over some of that growth that has been done and has yet to be done that we saw from Winston in the Green Bay game last week.