The Bucs just locked up one of their talented starting receivers to a contract extension this offseason. Mike Evans, who was set to become a free agent, agreed to a two-year, $51 million contract that likely keeps him in Tampa to finish out his career. But 2024 represents a contract year for Evans’ running mate Chris Godwin.

Godwin is due $20 million in cash this year and represents a $27,534,000 salary cap hit. He will also count $18,852,000 in dead cap in 2025. And while Evans had a renaissance season last year that helped him secure his bag, Godwin does not necessarily need a big contract year to do the same, provided he maintains his current three-year pace in 2024.

The Wide Receiver Market Is Growing…Quickly

Nico Collins just received a three-year extension for $72 million. Collins has but one elite season under his belt. Prior to 2023 he had just 70 catches for 927 yards and three touchdowns. But Collins broke onto the scene in a big way for an upstart Texans team that made a deep run into the postseason. His 3.1 yards per route run was second among all qualified receivers last year. This was enroute to 80 catches, 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns.

Collins and Evans were just two of seven receivers to receive contracts with APY’s of $20 million or more, joining A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman Jr. and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

These receivers span a fairly wide talent gap. At the top Brown is undisputably one of the best receivers in the game currently. In the next tier is Evans, St. Brown, Collins and Smith. Still in another tier behind that is Pittman Jr. and Ridley. This shows that it isn’t just the best of the best getting huge contracts at the receiver position anymore. And the market will continue to expand. In the next 12 months it is likely Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb, San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk, and Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase will all eclipse $30 million per year.

Receiver Market Will Mean Godwin Likely Finds A Raise

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

With Tristan Wirfs still needing a contract extension and the precedent the Bucs set last year with Evans, it is highly unlikely Godwin

will see an extension materialize with the Bucs before the end of the 2024 season. His current deal has an APY of $20 million. At the time of signing Godwin’s APY represented 9.6% of 2022’s salary cap.

Next year the NFL salary cap could be $275 million or higher. 9.6% of that figure would be $26.4 million per year. Even if the Bucs, or another team, were to determine that Godwin’s age and mileage mean he’s not worth 9.6% of the salary cap there is still a lot of wiggle room for him to still secure more than the $20 million per year he is making. His current APY would be 7.3% of a $275 million salary cap. That would put Godwin somewhere between Jerry Jeudy’s recent extension and the contract Christian Kirk signed with the Jaguars in 2022. Godwin’s resume puts both of those receiver’s achievements (prior to signing their deals) in the doghouse.

What Deal Would Godwin Likely Fetch?

Over the past three years Godwin has caught 285 of 384 targets for 3,150 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has averaged a very healthy 1.85 yards per route run while operating as a reliable short-to-intermediate security blanket. Here is how Godwin’s production over the past three years has compared to the list of receivers who signed $20+ million APY deals this offseason.

Out of these eight players Godwin ranks fourth in targets and catches, sixth in yards and last in touchdowns. In the efficiency metrics he is second in catch rate, seventh in yards per catch and yards per route run. One area that Godwin and his representation will likely highlight come negotiation time is his prowess as a contested catch receiver where he ranked second only to Evans in catch rate.

Of the receivers on this list Pittman Jr. is Godwin’s closest contemporary. Take a look at the two side-by-side (or stacked as it were):

Both rank high in both counting and contested catch metrics and lower in the efficiency markers. Pittman Jr. just signed a three-year, $70 million pact with the Colts. His $23,333,333 APY is 9.16% of this year’s salary cap. A similar deal for Godwin next year would be three years and $75.5 million.

But Godwin’s age and general wear and tear over the past several seasons may cause two key adjustments to that projection. First off, I don’t think he will find a team willing to go with a real third year. Most likely, as he will be headed into his age 29 season, Godwin will find most teams will want to secure his services for two years, similarly to how the Bucs locked up Evans for two years this offseason.

Secondly, as Pittman Jr. is entering the prime of his career and Godwin is departing his, there will be a slight decrement to Godwin’s APY as a percent of the salary cap. This is also similar to Evans’ deal this year. If you go back to the original chart, you will notice Evans ranked very well within the group. He was third in yards, first in yards per catch, fourth in yards per route run and first in touchdowns. Despite all of that Evans received the lowest APY of the group. As he was the oldest player of the group by some margin it stands to reason that his age played a large role in that deduction.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

Taking Pittman Jr.’s 9.16% rate and reducing it to, say 8.75% on a $275 million salary cap would fetch an APY of $24 million. That would result in a two-year, $48 million contract with about $29 million fully guaranteed.

The big question at that point would be whether that contract would come from the Bucs or not. Odds are it won’t be. It’s not that it couldn’t be Tampa Bay. When the team signed Godwin to his current deal in 2022 the cash spending they devoted to the combination of he and Evans was 16.3% of that year’s salary cap. The team is set to pay Evans just $18 million in cash next year as they front loaded his current contract. That would leave them with almost $27 million in cash to spend on Godwin to equate to the 2022 deal. That would account for almost all of the money I projected for Godwin’s full guarantees.

No, the bigger problem is the artificial cap the team created with Evans’ current deal. By putting Evans’ APY at $20.5 million they have given a subtle nod that they are appropriately re-setting the financial pecking order of the two receivers. But they have given no room for Godwin to reach the $24 million valuation without him once again eclipsing Evans’ APY.

It’s more likely Godwin finds his next payday outside of Tampa Bay. But a nice payday he should receive as long as he can stay healthy and productive.