It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. It wasn’t perfect, but the Bucs pulled away from the Raiders to win 28-13 and claim first place in the NFC South due to the Falcons losing to the Vikings at Minnesota. Tampa Bay is now 7-6 and controls its own destiny, while Atlanta has lost four straight after a 6-3 start to slump to 6-7.

The Bucs raced out to a 14-0 lead before the game drew to a 14-10 affair before a couple of Tampa Bay touchdowns in the fourth quarter put the game away. Baker Mayfield threw three touchdowns, including two to Jalen McMillan, but also had three turnovers in the form of two interceptions and a fumble.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Jalen McMillan’s Breakout Game Helps Bucs Win

So many rookies have made immediate impacts in Tampa Bay that we’ve become spoiled, haven’t we?

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

We’ve seen Tristan Wirfs play like a Pro Bowl tackle from his first NFL game and Antoine Winfield Jr. become an instant playmaker in the secondary back in 2020. We saw Cade Otton and Rachaad White made huge plays as rookies in 2022 and punter Jake Camarda was a rookie starter.

Last year, Cody Mauch was a wire-to-wire starter at right guard and Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby became impact starters on defense by midseason. And, of course, this year’s rookie class features impactful starters like center Graham Barton, nickelback Tykee Smith and running back Bucky Irving.

So when wide receiver Jalen McMillan, this year’s third-round pick, doesn’t follow a similar, immediate trajectory we get concerned, and worried he’s a potential bust. McMillan hasn’t lived up to the hype he generated in training camp and the preseason and has largely disappointed from a production and availability standpoint.

The Washington product has had some growing up to do, and has had to learn how life in the NFL is when it comes to taking care of one’s body regarding treatment and preventative maintenance.

Yet history suggests that maybe we shouldn’t be too concerned about McMillan’s slow start to his Tampa Bay career.

After McMillan’s four-catch, 59-yard, two-touchdown performance versus Las Vegas, he now has 17 catches for 204 yards and three touchdowns on the year. Compare that to Chris Godwin’s rookie season back in 2017 and Godwin had 23 catches for 298 yards and no touchdowns through Week 14.

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan and C Graham Barton – Photo by: USA Today

And keep in mind that McMillan has missed five games due to hamstring injuries, so his production is over nine games whereas Godwin didn’t miss a single game in his rookie season. So in some ways, McMillan’s production is actually ahead of Godwin’s, especially in terms of scoring.

McMillan has three touchdowns in nine games with four remaining, while Godwin only had one TD during his rookie season. So maybe Sunday was a big turning point for the rookie receiver.

Godwin finished his rookie season in 2017 with a bang, hauling in three catches for 98 yards at Carolina in Week 16 that year before a season-best seven catches for 111 yards and the game-winning touchdown in the final moments in a 31-24 win over the Saints in the season finale. Perhaps McMillan finishes his rookie year with bang, too.

McMillan certainly finished the Raiders off with a 29-yard touchdown on a screen pass on third-and-6.

With the Bucs now back in front of the race for the NFC South title, the team needs all the help it can get from McMillan down the stretch.

“It’s just the work that I put in,” McMillan said. “Just coming in as a rookie. I watch Chris and Mike put in work and just try to model every day – how I approach every day – after them. It’s a process and not everything is going to be perfect but at the end of the day, you just have to count your wins and today was a win. So I’m just excited.”

STATEMENT 2. Tykee Smith To The Rescue

Bucs NCB Tykee Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs have had safeties dropping like flies this season. Jordan Whitehead was lost for weeks after injuring his pectoral muscle in a 30-7 win at New York, and then his replacement, Mike Edwards, suffered a hamstring injury last week at Carolina. On Sunday, it was Antoine Winfield Jr. who went out with a knee injury that will cause him to miss “a few weeks” according to head coach Todd Bowles.

Thankfully, rookie nickelback Tykee Smith returned to the lineup and came to the rescue. Without Winfield, Whitehead or Edwards, somebody needed to make a play for a Tampa Bay defense that had struggled defending the middle of the field all day. With the Raiders taking the opening kickoff of the second half and marching down the field for the first nine minutes of the third quarter, Aidan O’Connell rifled a pass towards rookie sensation Brock Bowers at the Tampa Bay 7-yard line.

But Smith had tight coverage and jumped in front of Bowers, whom he guarded in practice at the University of Georgia, and came away with his second interception of the year. Smith has been the ballhawk that Winfield was last year, and is tied with Zyon McCollum for the team lead with a pair of picks, in addition to forcing three fumbles, which is tied with Lavonte David for the team lead.

Smith has missed the last three games due to a swollen knee he suffered when he banged knees in practice with another player prior to the 49ers game. The swelling inhibited his range of motion during the past few weeks and finally subsided to the point where he could run without it being an issue. Smith didn’t even start the game on Sunday against the Raiders and was not originally going to play as much as he did.

“We wanted to spot play him early on to see how he felt and how he was moving around,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “Once he came to the sideline and said he was a go – with Winfield Jr. going down, I’m glad he was a go right there. That kind of helped us right there. [Smith] saw [Bowers] a lot in practice. I guess he gets bragging rights when they go back to Georgia.”

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Where Was The Bucs’ Pass Rush?

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay’s pass rush was there on Sunday, but it didn’t show up in the sack department. Outside of Bucs defensive tackles Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey and some occasional blitzes from inside linebacker Lavonte David, who had his fourth sack of the season, the Bucs don’t have much in the way of sacks, especially from the outside linebacker position.

But even Vea and Kancey were held without sacks on Sunday. Vea had one tackle and Kancey had two stops, but Kancey did have six quarterback pressures along with Yaya Diaby, and the second-year defensive tackle led the team with three quarterback hits, according to Pro Football Focus. Yet the lack of sacks is both stunning and discouraging considering the talent Tampa Bay has along its defensive line.

Kancey and Vea lead the team with six sacks apiece, but Diaby has just two and second-round pick Chris Braswell has half a sack on the season. The leading sacker among outside linebackers is six-year veteran Anthony Nelson, who has three through 13 games.

If Todd Bowles returns next year, he needs to fire outside linebackers coach George Edwards and find a replacement. Edwards got run out of Dallas because of a lack of development among the Cowboys edge rushers and the Bucs made a mistake in hiring him. Unfortunately I don’t see Tampa Bay’s pass rush from the edge getting any better as long as Edwards is leading that room. It’s time for change.

QUESTION 2. Will Baker Mayfield Stop Throwing Interceptions?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Hopefully. The Chargers defense doesn’t play around. Los Angeles defenders picked off Kirk Cousins four times in Atlanta just two weeks ago, and now have 13 on the year. Baker Mayfield has thrown four interceptions combined in the last two games and has 13 on the season, which is the second-most in the league behind Cousins, who has 15.

Mayfield went three games without an interception against Kansas City, San Francisco and the New York Giants, so he’s certainly capable of playing mistake-free football. And he accounted for four touchdowns (three passing and one rushing) during that span.

The Chargers have the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense, allowing an average of just 15.9 points per game, in addition to the 11th-ranked total defense, allowing 323.7 yards per game. L.A. has the eighth-ranked pass defense, surrendering just 206.1 yards per game. Beating the Chargers out in Los Angeles is not impossible, but the Bucs will need to leave “Bad Baker” at home in Tampa and take “Turnover-Free Baker” on the road to the West Coast in order to pull that off.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Might Move On To Their Fourth Punter Of The Year

Bucs P Jack Browning – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The NFL debut for Jack Browning, the Bucs’ practice squad punter who was elevated to the game day roster on Sunday, was shaky. Browning punted the ball three times against Las Vegas and had a 42.7 average with a 32.7-yard net. None of Browning’s punts were downed inside the 20, but none were touchbacks, either.

Browning had three kickoffs that resulted in touchbacks and two of his other kickoffs were returned for a 29.5-yard average. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles was asked how he thought the rookie’s first NFL action of any kind went on Sunday.

“The few that I saw, you know, it’s a work in progress,” Bowles said with a laugh. “I’m going to brush it off to rookie jitters and we’ll go from there.”

I would not be surprised if the Bucs added another punter to the practice squad this week just in case Browning isn’t the right guy. Tampa Bay can elevate him twice more this season before having to sign him to the active roster or find someone else to punt, hold and do kickoffs.

PREDICTION 2. Chargers Snap Bucs’ 3-Game Winning Streak

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay has had a nice run, winning a trio of games against teams without winning records. But the Chargers are a very good team that is poised to make the playoffs with an 8-5 record. I think Tampa Bay’s winning streak comes to a halt on the West Coast. The Los Angeles defense is one of the best in the league, and Justin Herbert is one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks.

I’m not saying the Bucs can’t win this game, especially if they are at full health. But Tampa Bay is incredibly banged up, particularly on defense, and I think a healthier team would stand a better chance of coming away victorious. At full – or near – full strength, this Bucs squad has shown it can beat the likes of the Commanders, Eagles and Lions. In fact, Detroit has only lost one game this year, and that was at home to Tampa Bay in Week 2, 20-16.

But with a bunch of backups in the lineup, it will be hard for Tampa Bay to return home with a win and an 8-6 record.